The Democrats have been confident this election cycle. But they may be overly confident.
Because early voting data has the Democrat party in shambles.
Democrats are facing a significant challenge in three critical battleground states: Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Once a key strength for the Democratic Party, mail-in voting numbers have plummeted in these states, sending shockwaves through the party’s election strategy.
This drop in mail-in ballot requests, which played a major role in securing victories for Democrats in 2020, could spell trouble for Vice President Kamala Harris as she faces off against Republican candidate Donald Trump in what promises to be a tightly contested election.
New data from Decision Desk HQ shows a staggering decline in mail-in voting requests by Democrats in these pivotal states. Compared to the 2020 election, Democratic requests for mail-in ballots are down by 5 percent in Florida, nearly 15 percent in North Carolina, and a whopping 35 percent in Pennsylvania.
This trend has left Democratic strategists scrambling for answers while energizing Republicans who have long emphasized the importance of in-person voting but are now adapting their strategies to capitalize on early and mail-in voting opportunities.
For years, Republicans have been wary of mail-in voting, with former President Trump and many GOP leaders raising concerns about the security and potential for fraud associated with the process. However, the landscape is changing. In response to the Democratic Party’s past success in leveraging mail-in ballots, Republican strategists are urging their base to embrace early voting.
Jimmy Keady, founder and president of the Republican-aligned JLK Political Strategies, told Fox News that he’s encouraged by the shift in Republican voting behavior. “It’s great news that Republicans are starting to early vote,” Keady said. “As Republicans, we have to start getting the base to early vote, to do mail-in ballots, to do these things that we know are safe and secure, to get people out to the polls. The Democrats have done this really well, for years.”
This shift in strategy could prove critical for Republicans in the upcoming election. In the past, Democrats have used early and mail-in voting to build up a substantial lead before Election Day, allowing them to focus their resources on get-out-the-vote efforts in the final stretch. Now, Republicans are beginning to adopt this same approach, and it may just be the key to flipping key battleground states red.
For Democrats, the sudden collapse of their mail-in voting apparatus is alarming. In 2020, mail-in ballots were a critical tool for the Democratic Party, helping President Joe Biden secure wins in battleground states and giving the party an edge in the pandemic-affected election cycle. However, the enthusiasm for mail-in voting appears to have diminished.
In Florida, Democrats have requested 5 percent fewer mail-in ballots compared to 2020. Although Florida is now widely considered a red state, this drop in mail-in ballot requests could signal waning Democratic enthusiasm heading into 2024.
More concerning for Democrats are the numbers coming out of North Carolina and Pennsylvania. In North Carolina, mail-in ballot requests by Democrats are down by almost 15 percent, while in Pennsylvania, the drop is a staggering 35 percent.
This significant decline in early voting participation among Democrats is raising eyebrows, especially considering that the party has heavily relied on these voters to offset potential losses on Election Day. Many Democratic voters in 2020 were motivated to vote early, largely due to fears about COVID-19 and ongoing efforts by the party to cast early voting as a safe and responsible choice. Without that same level of urgency or enthusiasm, Democrats are facing an uphill battle.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, has struggled to generate excitement and enthusiasm among voters. Following the Sept. 10 presidential debate, post-debate analysis showed that many believed the moderators, ABC News’ David Muir and Linsey Davis, were biased against Trump, which may have contributed to Harris’ failure to gain any meaningful bounce in the polls.
Despite the favorable media treatment she often receives, Harris is underperforming both Biden and Hillary Clinton in their respective presidential campaigns against Trump. Pollsters have notoriously undervalued Trump as a candidate, failing to capture his actual voting base accurately. As a result, Harris’ performance thus far should be a major concern for the Democratic Party.
Without the early and mail-in voting advantage that Democrats relied on so heavily in 2020, Harris will be even more vulnerable to Trump’s energetic and highly motivated base. In battleground states like North Carolina and Pennsylvania, where races remain neck-and-neck, every vote will count, and the collapse in mail-in voting could prove to be a major factor in a potential Republican victory.
The ability to get voters to cast their ballots early has always been an essential component of any successful political campaign. The earlier people vote, the more resources a campaign can allocate towards getting out the vote from those who haven’t yet participated. Jimmy Keady explains the benefits: “Campaigns are now sophisticated enough that once you go vote, those [robocalls and mailers] stop. Once a voter goes to vote, that allows resource allocation from that voter to another voter.”
This is a tactic that Democrats have perfected over the years, but it appears that Republicans are catching up. In an election as contentious and crucial as 2024, having a base of early and mail-in votes could make all the difference. Republicans, seeing the decline in Democratic mail-in voting requests, now have an opportunity to capitalize on early voting in ways they hadn’t before.
Even though Florida is now considered a solidly red state, Republicans will need every vote they can muster in states like North Carolina and Pennsylvania. As polls continue to show a tight race between Trump and Harris, building up an early voting base will provide much-needed security and ensure that Republicans are in the best possible position heading into Election Day.
One of the major obstacles Republicans have faced in adopting early voting and mail-in ballots has been misinformation. Some conservatives have expressed concerns about voter fraud and the security of mail-in voting, but Republican leaders are working hard to reassure their base that these methods are safe and secure.
“Republicans were slow to adopt early voting and mail-in ballots because of concerns about fraud, but the reality is that these methods are secure and widely used,” Keady said. “If we want to win, we need to stop ceding early voting to the Democrats and get our voters to the polls as soon as possible.”
By embracing mail-in and early voting, Republicans can ensure that they don’t leave votes on the table, while also allowing campaigns to focus their resources on getting out the vote on Election Day. The collapse of Democratic mail-in voting is great news for Republicans, but they can’t afford to be complacent. By encouraging their base to vote early, Republicans can counteract any Democratic surge on Election Day and secure victories in key battleground states.
As the 2024 presidential election heats up, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: the Democratic Party’s mail-in voting advantage is collapsing. With massive declines in mail-in ballot requests in Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, Democrats are facing an unprecedented challenge in a race that remains razor-thin in battleground states.
For Republicans, this shift presents a golden opportunity. By embracing early voting and mail-in ballots, the GOP can build a solid base of votes and ensure that they are not caught off guard by any last-minute surprises on Election Day.
As Trump continues to rally his supporters and Harris struggles to generate enthusiasm, the collapse of Democratic mail-in voting could very well be the deciding factor in the 2024 election.
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