The Democrats think that they have Trump on the run. But the truth might be very different.
As new swing state data has unveiled Trump’s stunning election plan.
As the 2024 presidential election inches closer, a new poll conducted by The New York Times/Siena College reveals a surprising shift in three critical swing states, all pointing to one conclusion: Donald Trump is gaining momentum, and Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, is struggling to keep up.
Despite losing two of these key states to Joe Biden in the razor-thin 2020 election, Trump now leads Harris in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, setting the stage for a potentially seismic political realignment.
In Arizona, Trump leads Harris by a margin of 50% to 45%. This is particularly significant considering that Biden narrowly won the state in 2020 by just over 10,400 votes. The Times also noted a shift from an August survey that showed Harris leading Trump by 5 points. The sudden swing in favor of Trump signals that Arizona voters are growing increasingly dissatisfied with the current administration and are turning to the former president for leadership.
The story is the same in Georgia, another state that Biden narrowly won in 2020 by under 11,800 votes. The latest poll reveals Trump ahead of Harris, 49% to 45%. This is a major blow to the Democrats, as Georgia’s shifting demographics were seen as key to the party’s future electoral success. Trump’s ability to reclaim this state could be an indication of his broader appeal to both traditional conservatives and disaffected Democrats alike.
North Carolina, a state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic president since 2008, shows Trump holding a narrow lead of 49% to 47% over Harris. While North Carolina is not considered a swing state in the same vein as Arizona or Georgia, Trump’s continued strength here further underscores his dominance across the Sun Belt.
The poll, conducted between September 17 and 21, surveyed 713 voters in Arizona, 682 voters in Georgia, and 682 voters in North Carolina. The margin of error varied between the states, with a 2.5% margin of error across all likely voters in the three states combined. As the poll reflects, the top issue driving voter preferences in these states is the economy—an issue where Trump clearly outshines Harris.
With inflation, rising energy costs, and a sluggish job market weighing heavily on voters, it’s no wonder that 55% of respondents in these critical swing states say they trust Trump more on the economy compared to just 42% who say the same of Harris.
Joe Biden’s economic policies, which have led to skyrocketing prices for everyday goods and a deteriorating sense of financial security for millions of Americans, are clearly dragging Harris down.
Moreover, 48% of voters across the three states say they “strongly disapprove” of Biden’s job performance. This is a stark reminder that the failures of the Biden-Harris administration are pushing voters back toward Trump, who is seen as more capable of handling the economic recovery. Voters have grown tired of the Democrats’ inability to rein in inflation, fix the supply chain issues, or even bring energy prices under control.
After the economy, immigration ranks as the second most important issue for voters, with 16% identifying it as their top concern. Once again, Trump is viewed more favorably on this issue.
The Biden-Harris administration’s failure to secure the southern border has allowed millions of illegal immigrants to flood into the country, creating a crisis that has overwhelmed local communities, strained resources, and increased crime.
Trump’s tough stance on illegal immigration, which includes finishing the border wall and enforcing strict deportation measures, resonates strongly with voters in these swing states. While Harris has largely avoided addressing the border crisis directly, her record as vice president—where she was put in charge of border security and failed to make any meaningful progress—speaks for itself. Voters know that Harris will continue the same failed policies, while Trump offers a real solution to the chaos.
Interestingly, while abortion ranks as the third most important issue for voters at 16%, it does not appear to be driving the same level of intensity as the economy or immigration. This could be a reflection of voters’ concerns over more immediate, tangible problems like inflation and illegal immigration.
While Democrats have attempted to galvanize support around the issue of abortion, particularly in the wake of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, it seems that economic security and border control are more pressing concerns for the majority of voters in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
As the poll shows, Trump leads Harris 49% to 45% across the three swing states overall. This is a clear indication that Trump’s message is resonating with voters in these critical battlegrounds.
When asked who they trust more to handle the issues they care about most, 50% of respondents said they trust Trump, while only 46% said they trust Harris. These numbers suggest that Trump’s appeal is not only holding steady but gaining strength as the election approaches.
The shift toward Trump in these swing states is not an isolated phenomenon. Across the country, Americans are waking up to the failures of the Biden-Harris administration. From skyrocketing inflation to the border crisis to rising crime rates, it’s clear that the Democrats have lost touch with the issues that matter most to the American people.
Meanwhile, Trump continues to offer a vision of strong leadership, economic prosperity, and national security—something voters are desperately craving after four years of chaos under Biden.
Democrats are undoubtedly feeling the pressure as they watch key swing states slip away. The fact that Trump is now leading in Arizona and Georgia—two states that were central to Biden’s 2020 victory—has sent shockwaves through the Democratic Party. Kamala Harris, who was supposed to energize the base and carry forward Biden’s agenda, is clearly struggling to connect with voters.
The Democratic strategy of leaning into identity politics and focusing on divisive social issues has backfired, especially in states where voters are more concerned about their wallets and the security of their communities. The Biden-Harris administration’s inability to tackle these core issues is now coming back to haunt them.
The poll’s results show that Trump’s momentum is real, and it’s growing. With each passing day, more Americans are waking up to the failures of the Biden-Harris administration and looking to Trump as the leader who can restore prosperity and security. If these trends continue, the 2024 election could see Trump not only reclaim the White House but also secure a broader coalition of voters, including those in critical swing states that have traditionally leaned Democratic.
As the election season heats up, one thing is clear: Donald Trump is back, and this time, he’s poised to win where it matters most.
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