Trump is cleaning out the establishment class one person at a time. His second term hasn’t even started yet and heads are rolling.
And Donald Trump’s presidential victory ends the career of this fraudulent election pollster.
J. Ann Selzer Steps Back From Election Polling Amid Controversy Over Erroneous Iowa Results
J. Ann Selzer, a longtime figure in political polling, has announced her departure from election polling just weeks after her once-renowned Iowa survey predicted Vice President Kamala Harris leading the state — only for President Donald Trump to win it by a decisive 13-point margin on Election Day.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, released on the Saturday before the election, sparked widespread criticism after projecting Harris 3 points ahead of Trump in the battle for Iowa’s six electoral votes. The prediction marked a 7-point gain for Harris compared to the poll’s findings a month earlier, but it was a stark 16 points off the actual outcome.
The poll’s release sent ripples through the political sphere, momentarily boosting Democratic hopes that Harris could flip a state Trump had easily carried in 2016 and 2020. However, the actual result reinforced Iowa’s evolution from a swing state to reliably Republican territory — a trend solidified since its last vote for a Democrat, Barack Obama, in 2012.
In a guest op-ed for The Des Moines Register, Selzer, who has conducted the Iowa Poll since 1987, claimed her decision to step back had been planned for over a year. She emphasized her intent to pursue “other ventures and opportunities” which are assumedly unrelated to election polling.
“Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite,” she wrote.
Selzer also took to X (formerly Twitter) to address speculation about the timing of her exit. “Oh, and mentions of ‘retirement’ are inaccurate. It’s been a long-time plan that this election would be my last work of this sort. Other work continues,” she posted.
I'm attaching documents The Des Moines Register has made public. Oh, and mentions of "retirement" are inaccurate. It's been a long-time plan that this election would be my last work of this sort. Other work continues.
My analysis document. https://t.co/GEbTQqcSro
— J. Ann Selzer (@jaselzer) November 17, 2024
Critics were not convinced. The timing of her departure, coupled with the dramatic polling miss, fueled skepticism online. Many accused her of walking away to avoid accountability, with one X user posting, “Ann Selzer’s retirement makes one thing totally clear. She didn’t catch an outlier. She didn’t make an honest mistake. She cooked the books and released a poll that she knew wasn’t just wrong but dishonest.”
Selzer has pushed back against these allegations, maintaining her reputation for integrity while acknowledging the glaring miss. On the same morning as her announcement, she released a post-mortem evaluation of the poll but admitted she found “nothing to illuminate the miss.”
“Since election night, I’ve worked my way through possible explanations for the dramatic difference between the final Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll that my company conducted,” Selzer wrote in the document. “To cut to the chase, I found nothing to illuminate the miss.”
Although she defended her methodology, Selzer floated several theories in her report, including respondents potentially lying or changing their minds after being surveyed.
She also suggested that the poll may have failed to capture shifting support among men of color toward Trump, as 84% of the respondents were white — reflective of Iowa’s demographics.
Online reactions were swift and unforgiving. Critics dismissed her explanations as inadequate, with some accusing her of evading responsibility.
“Thank God I never have to hear the words ‘gold standard’ and Ann Selzer again,” one X user quipped. “A 17% whiff will do that.”
Despite the backlash, Selzer stood firm in her op-ed, defending her career and methodology while acknowledging the magnitude of the error. “I’ll continue to be puzzled by the biggest miss of my career,” she concluded.
As Selzer moves on from election polling, her legacy remains a topic of debate. Once celebrated as a “gold standard” in political surveys, her final poll has cast a shadow over her storied career.
Stay tuned to Prudent Politics.
