Our country can’t afford to let the Left take power. But it’s not looking good.
And now a key voting metric suggests a terrible night for Republicans this November.
The first big numbers of the 2026 midterms are in, and they carry a message Republicans should read carefully. Democrats are running up lopsided majorities of the early vote, carving out a clear majority of the ballots cast so far, according to the New York Post. Among early and mail-in voters, 54% were Democrats, 30% Republicans and 16% independents or “other.”
That is a 24-point gap in party registration among ballots already in the bank. Nobody should pretend it is meaningless, and nobody should pretend it settles anything. Both statements are true, and understanding why is the key to what Republicans do over the next sixteen days.
Start with the scale. According to NBC News, more than 9.1 million mail-in and early in-person votes had been cast nationally, with about 6.6 million by mail and 2.5 million in person, and 55 million mail ballots requested or sent. That sounds big until you remember that roughly 112 million votes were cast overall in the 2022 midterms and about 57 million of them before Election Day. We are looking at a small slice of the electorate.
Next, consider who votes early by mail. In recent years, mail voters have been much more Democratic, while early in-person voters have been more evenly split or Republican-leaning. So a snapshot dominated by mail ballots is going to look blue before the red-leaning in-person and Election Day votes arrive. Analysts have cautioned that early data is an incomplete picture for exactly this reason.
That said, the enthusiasm gap is real in places that matter. In North Carolina, 201,609 people voted early in person on the first day, a jump of nearly 47% from the first day of early in-person voting in 2022. Registered Democrats outvoted registered Republicans by nearly 28 points that day, up from a 2-point advantage on the first day of early voting in 2024, according to state election board data cited by CNN. Through Saturday, the state had accepted more than 500,000 ballots, about 38% more than at the same point four years ago.
In Iowa, Democrats have made 67% of ballot requests, up from 54% at this point in 2024. In North Carolina, 42% of ballot requests came from Democrats, up from 36% two years ago. Those are not rounding errors. They suggest that the president’s opponents are motivated, organized and in a hurry to vote.
Not all of the news is bad for Republicans. In North Carolina, mail-in ballots are lagging, with 40,273 accepted compared to 57,723 at this point in 2022, a decrease of 30.2%. More Republicans are also voting early than in the past, as party organizations urge supporters to use legally available early voting rather than hand that portion of the electorate to Democrats. The old assumption that Republicans vote only on Election Day is eroding.
That shift is one of the smartest changes in GOP strategy in years. For a long time, many conservative voters distrusted mail voting and, in many cases, had good reasons to ask for strong verification and chain-of-custody rules. But refusing to participate in a legal voting method does not make it go away; it just means the other side gets a head start. Voting early in person, where it is available, lets Republicans bank their ballots, avoid long lines, and free up volunteers to chase down the people who still have not voted.
Pay attention, too, to the one clear Democratic advantage: organization. The party’s turnout machine has had years to build a habit of early and mail voting among its base, especially older voters who find it convenient. Republicans are catching up, but catching up means working the phones, knocking on doors and driving neighbors to the polls.
This is also where populist energy can make a difference. The voters who elected a president promising to put working Americans first are the same voters who sometimes feel that their ballots will not change anything. They need to hear the opposite. In a year when margins in the House and Senate are thin, a few thousand votes in the right district can decide who controls Congress.
There are a few practical takeaways. If your state offers early in-person voting, use it, and bring a neighbor. If you are mailing a ballot, follow your state’s rules to the letter, since signature and deadline mistakes can disqualify otherwise valid votes. If you have already voted, call the friend who always says he will get to it later. Election Day is November 3, and sixteen days is not very long.
And keep your skepticism in proportion. Early vote totals have misled both parties before. A candidate who looks to be losing in October can win in November, and a candidate who looks like a lock can stumble. The numbers describe where the race stands today, not where it will end.
What they do tell us is that Democrats are not waiting, and Republicans cannot afford to. The 54-30 split is a wake-up call, not a verdict. The only way to make it a footnote is to show up.
