Vance was supposed to be a shoo-in. But things are changing fast.
Now JD Vance just got hit with huge competition for the 2028 nomination.
Rubio Surges in New Hampshire, Complicating Vance’s Status as Trump’s Heir Apparent
A new poll out of New Hampshire, the state that has held the nation’s first Republican presidential primary for a century, shows Secretary of State Marco Rubio dramatically closing the gap with Vice President JD Vance in a hypothetical 2028 GOP nomination matchup, raising fresh questions about who will lead the party after President Donald Trump’s term ends.
Rubio’s Momentum Builds as Vance’s Once-Dominant Lead Shrinks
Vance stands at 36% support among likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, with Rubio at 26%, according to a University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll released this week. That marks a massive shift from the previous UNH survey in February, which had Vance topping Rubio by a commanding 53% to 7%.
Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, who is mulling a second presidential bid after running in 2016, placed a distant third at 8%, tied with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who was the 2024 runner-up to Trump. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis grabbed 6% support, with every other potential contender tested at 4% or less.
“There’s nobody else in the conversation besides those two, so this poll makes sense,” New Hampshire-based Republican consultant David Carney, a veteran of numerous presidential campaigns, told Fox News Digital, referring to Vance and Rubio.
Rubio’s rise in 2028 polling this year has coincided with an expansion of his public role, including his involvement in the U.S. operation in Venezuela and the ongoing conflict with Iran. He also came in a close second to Vance earlier this year in the closely watched 2028 straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference.
Trump Praises Both, but Declines to Pick a Frontrunner
Trump has heaped praise on his secretary of state, declaring earlier this year that Rubio would go down as “the greatest secretary of state in history,” and has floated a Vance-Rubio ticket as “unstoppable” without specifying who should top it. The president has previously said Vance is “most likely” his heir apparent, noting simply, “In all fairness, he’s the vice president.”
Vance, for his part, has downplayed any rivalry, telling Fox News’ Martha MacCallum that “Marco is my closest friend in the administration,” and dismissing the idea of tension between the two on “The Story”: “I think it’s so interesting the media wants to create this conflict where there just isn’t any conflict.”
Rubio has said he would back Vance if the vice president launches a 2028 campaign, and unlike Vance, he has not assembled a dedicated political operation. Still, Republican sources confirmed to Fox News that a group of GOP donors supporting Rubio are quietly exploring ways to raise his political profile, a development that has drawn pushback from some in Trump’s orbit.
“Vice President Vance is the future of the Republican Party and Marco Rubio is one of his closest friends in the administration,” an operative in Trump’s political orbit told Fox News Digital. “The divisive stories from some donors trying to cause chaos are not helpful.”
A longtime Republican strategist offered a more pointed warning about Vance’s position: “Vance is in the catbird seat until something really goes bad and Trump is going to blame him… I can’t imagine Vance walking this tightrope for two more years without pissing off Trump.”
With the 2028 race not expected to begin in earnest until after this autumn’s midterms, Trump’s eventual endorsement is expected to carry major weight in shaping the field, regardless of how the current polling shakes out.
