Nothing is going right for the Democrats. They’re in trouble of losing everything.
And Kamala Harris and the entire Democrat Party is collapsing.
Montana’s Senate Race Faces Uncertain Future as Polling Trends Shift
Montana Democratic Senator Jon Tester is navigating a challenging reelection bid, with troubling polling data indicating he hasn’t led a poll since mid-August according to FiveThirtyEight, and even longer at RealClearPolitics, where his last lead was recorded in March.
Political analysts have expressed surprise at the lack of optimistic narratives surrounding Tester’s campaign. Instead, the tone of recent coverage has taken on a somber note. Michelle Cottle of the New York Times remarked, “Watching Mr. Tester rally the faithful, it’s hard to tell if he really gets it: Gets how much trouble he’s in politically, how much many voters don’t care where you were born anymore, how much Montana has changed. That last part is painful to contemplate.”
Meanwhile, Kael Weston, writing in the Boston Globe, noted that “Tester’s latest stand might be his last,” suggesting that this election could mark a turning point for Democrats in the Mountain West—either igniting hope or prolonging a difficult period defined by shifting political demographics.
Adding to the discourse, Ryan Nobles and Frank Thorp V of NBC News highlighted comments from seasoned Montana political strategist Pepper Peterson, who described the Senate race as “one for the political science books.” Peterson warned that if Republicans secure a win, “the Democrats are probably dead for 16 years in Montana or so, maybe longer.”
As Republican candidates solidify their positions, with Jim Justice poised for victory in West Virginia and Tim Sheehy gaining momentum in Montana, the GOP appears to be on track for a potential Senate majority, with projections indicating at least 51 seats.
The implications of a Republican-controlled Senate would be significant for any Democratic administration, particularly if Kamala Harris were to win the presidency. As noted by the Daily Kos, losing Tester’s seat along with Joe Manchin’s could “effectively halt the agenda of a President Kamala Harris if she were elected this year,” complicating cabinet appointments and opening the door to politicized impeachment trials.
In response to these challenges, the Kos has advised Democrats to concentrate their efforts in Texas and Florida, despite mixed polling results. In Texas, while Colin Allred is reportedly within four to five points of incumbent Republican Ted Cruz, analysts caution that this margin reflects a larger gap than Cruz’s narrow victory over Beto O’Rourke in 2018. With turnout in the last presidential cycle exceeding 11 million, Allred will need to secure around 452,000 additional votes to remain competitive.
Similarly, in Florida, Democratic Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell trails Republican incumbent Rick Scott by an average of 4.5 percentage points, struggling to gain traction in a state where Scott’s previous victories were decided by razor-thin margins.
Meanwhile, in Nebraska, optimism persists among certain Democrats, bolstered by a recent SurveyUSA poll suggesting that incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer may be in jeopardy, with challenger Osborn leading 50 percent to 44 percent. However, skepticism lingers given the state’s political landscape, characterized by a substantial Republican majority.
Terrible, No-Good Week For Kamala Harris
The trouble for Democrats isn’t just in the Senate. Kamala Harris, who was at one point in her race against Donald Trump, has fallen far from grace. The polls are not looking good for her and the public generally feels as though she’s likely to lose this November after a string of key strategic missteps.
All the betting markets now suggest that Donald Trump is the clear frontrunner as swing state polls are either tied or showing a Trump lead, particularly in the critical state of Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral votes.
All-in, the Democrats have had a horrible past few weeks. They went from flying high on the boost from Kamala Harris being in the race in place of Joe Biden to panic fast enough to give you whiplash.
Prudent Politics will be keeping our readers updated on any major U.S. Senate and Presidential election race news.
